Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Stock Analysts are Still Optimistic

The picture below comes from a McKinsey report (you need to register to read it all) showing that stock analyst tend to be overoptimistic.

Two things draw my attention:
i) In 2008, because of the crisis, the difference between January forecasts and the realized EPS is huge (almost 40%).

ii) The over-optimism in itself is not that surprising given the skewed incentives analyst have. Not even with regulatory changes seemed to have reduced the problem.

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